Thursday March 18, 2010

The Big Dance

The Big Dance
Sports clichés get to be clichés for a reason. Most of them hold true because they stand the test of time. So let’s examine a few clichés concerning Clemson’s chances in the NCAA tournament:

Guard Play Is Paramount
The Tigers may want to hope this one is not true because Missouri probably has the advantage in the guard department. Demontez Stitt is always a big key for Clemson but the Tigers are never really sure what kind of game they will get from their point guard. Also Clemson is not a huge offensive threat at the two guard. Ball handling is important in the NCAA tournament too but it may be more important in this game because both of these teams love to press in the full court and trap in the half court. Clemson needs for Stitt to come up with a big game tomorrow and it would really help the cause if Andre Young gets back to his form. Young scored in double figures in seven of eight games until the last two of the season where he was held to five points by Wake and two by NC State. Missouri’s double teams and traps should lead to some open looks and Young and Stitt’s looks will be a big key.

Experience is a Key in the NCAA Tournament
Usually this is a weakness in Clemson’s runs in the past but this group of Tigers has NCAA experience in each of the last two years. Booker is the landing scorer as he averages 12.0 points in his two tournament games. The senior is 9-13 from the field which is a .692 mark. Young hit three three-pointers last season against Michigan and scored nine points in his only NCAA tournament game. Stitt averages eight points and has eight assists and seven turnovers in his two NCAA appearances. David Potter has scored seven points in his two games but is just 2-12 from the field. Jerai Grant was just 1-5 from the field last year against Michigan and scored just two points as did Bryan Narcisse. Tanner Smith was 0-3 from the field in the loss last year to the Wolverines.

A Star Player Can Carry a Team in the NCAA Tournament
Some believe a star player can put a team on his back and lead his squad deep into the NCAA tournament. I think this may be Clemson’s biggest advantage. I am not sure Missouri has an answer for Trevor Booker. I can see Booker having a huge game and maybe having a double-double to lead the Tigers to a victory. The past two games have not been Booker’s best but both Wake Forest and NC State were able to bang Booker around and physically try to take him off of his game. I am not sure Missouri has the big bodies to bang on Booker. Missouri loves to trap in the half court and Booker could benefit from some open opportunities.

Momentum is Important
Neither group of Tigers has an advantage if this cliché is true. Clemson lost its last regular season game and then lost to the 11th seed in the ACC tournament in NC State. Missouri lost its last regular season game and then lost to the 12th seed in the Big 12 tournament in Nebraska. Neither team has played well in the last 10 days. Actually Missouri has lost three of their last four but two of those were to a number one seed in Kansas and a number two seed in Kansas State.

Jerai Grant needs to get some confidence and get back to the momentum he had a few weeks ago. Clemson’s big run in February came when Grant was on top of his game. He scored in double figures in five of six games from January 26 through February 20. Since that run Grant has scored 26 points in five games of 5.2 points per game.

Pressure
Some think the reason you see so many first round upsets in the first round of the NCAA tournament is the lower seeded teams face more pressure and the underdogs can just play loose. Had Clemson won a game or two in the ACC tournament then I think they would have less pressure but the first round lost to NC State adds pressure for Clemson. I don’t think Clemson wants to end its season without a post-season win for the second consecutive season. I also think Purnell wants to win the first NCAA tournament game of his career.

In the end, I am not sure which clichés will actually hold true and which ones will be more meaningful. I do think the fundamental statistics that we always watch will still be a key. The winning team will need to rebound well. Both of these offenses have struggled in their half court sets so second chance points may be a key.

Obviously turnovers and points off of turnovers will be a key. Both of these teams pride themselves in creating turnovers but both teams have turned it over too often as of late.

I also believe this will be a close game and free throw shooting is so important in close contests. There have been times this season where Clemson has been excellent from the free throw line but in a couple of the losses, free throw shooting was a big key.

We have all picked our brackets and I hope we all realize that we really don’t have any idea how most of these players and teams will play today and tomorrow. But in my gut I just think Trevor Booker comes out and plays very well. I see a 20 point, 12 rebound kind of game. I would love to see him have a good day at the free throw line though. He is just eight of his last 23 from the line. That is 35%. Before that three game stretch Booker was 92 of 146 from the stripe which is 63%. Clemson’s chances greatly improve if Booker can regain his confidence.

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Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
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*Please let me know when it is appropriate to take the person off of the prayer list

Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, Larry in Naples, FL, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Jo Ann Bachman, Frank Taylor, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard, Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, Jack Huffman, Nancy Winkler, Dr. Nancy Strom Morgan, John Reeve, Eileen Woodrum, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Kaitlyn L, Eric Boessneck, John Bowers, Jimmy Ness, Susan Miller, Joyce Harley, Steve Proveaux, John Petrey, Chalmers Carr, Drayton Melton, Jeffrey Greene, the Hutto family, Sherl Drawdy, Caleb Kennedy, Teresa O'Connor, Matt Jacobs, Mike Kingsmore,Perrin Seigler, Carole White Begley, Candee Massee, Lindsey Jordan, Sam Catoe, Tyler Felch, Steve Cato, the Nicolopulos family, Cason Palmer, Candace Fallaw, Scott Jackson, "the Jacksonville, FL guys", Kim Sims, the Coyle familty, Ryleigh Tedder, Steve Lee.