Thursday September 30, 2010

CU vs. Miami Prediction by Rev O.

Although I got last week correct it was still a tough pill to swallow. Clemson had Auburn’s back against the wall but Auburn responded like all good teams do. They didn’t lose their composure and came out in the second half ready to play football. Clemson, on the other hand, took a quarter to get loosened up and that was all Auburn needed to get themselves back in the game. Even with the loss, most articles that I have read were impressed with the toughness of this Clemson team. I think this toughness will allow them to dig deep when necessary and win some close games this year. Although the stats don’t appear to favor Clemson in this game, I think the fact that Clemson has a good running game might help them against a good Miami defensive front barring no major injuries to the Clemson offensive line. Miami is good at defending the pass so Clemson will need to control the line of scrimmage. The downside of the matchup here is the Clemson defense. They came in this year expecting to do well on defense but just the opposite has happened. Clemson ranks in the lower half of the ACC in the four main categories. In order for Clemson to win this game the defense is going to have to step up their play for all 4 quarters this time around.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Even

Clemson Rushing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. MIA Rushing Defense is 5th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 8th in the ACC. MIA Pass Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 5th in the ACC. MIA Total Defense is 1st in the ACC.
Clemson Scoring Offense is 1st in the ACC. MIA Scoring Defense is 2nd in the ACC.

Clemson could have a tough time controlling the line of scrimmage. They will be up against a good defensive front led by Allen Bailey and Marcus Fortson who are future NFL picks and are good enough to go in the first round of the NFL draft. They also have good linebackers in Sean Spence and Colin McCarthy who will also play in the NFL one day. And don’t forget about Oliver Vernon who has 3.5 sacks this year. Miami is second in the nation in sacks with 4.7 per game. To counter this claim, the Clemson offense is 17th in the nation allowing only 0.67 sacks per game so this should be an exciting matchup in the trenches. Key matchups will be at the tackle positions. Landon Walker will have the duty of stopping Bailey and Chris Hairston will be on the other side working on Oliver. The Miami rush defense is allowing 120 yds/gm putting them in the top half of the ACC in defending the rush but I think Ellington and Harper will do OK in the rushing department. Parker threw the ball well against Auburn and is currently 35-60-1 with 6 TDs and ranked 22nd in the nation in Passing Efficiency. TE Dwayne Allen continues to be a big part of the Clemson game plan. The Clemson offense is well balanced, running for 598 yards while passing for 645 yards. If they can continue this balance then they might be able to keep the Miami defense off balance a little.

When MIA has the ball: Advantage: Miami

MIA Rushing Offense is 10th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 9th in the ACC.
MIA Passing Offense is 5th in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 8th in the ACC.
MIA Total Offense is 8th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 10th in the ACC.
MIA Scoring Offense is 5th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 7th in the ACC.

QB Jacory Harris plays much better at home than away. The Clemson fan base will need to be involved in this game. They will be the 12th man on the field. Usually when Miami loses it’s because Harris throws interceptions. Turnover margin will be important: Clemson leads the ACC at +5. Miami is last at -3 with 7 interceptions. Harris throws to probably the best set of receivers in the ACC - Leonard Hankerson (6-3, 215, Sr) has 16 receptions for 241 yards and three scores; Travis Benjamin (5-10, 175, Jr) has 10 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown; LaRon Byrd (6-4, 215, Jr) has 12 catches for 118 yards. Aldarius Johnson rounds out the receiving corps and has 5 catches for 69 yards this year. Harris will also throw to Damien Berry (averaging 97 yds/gm rushing) out of the backfield so the linebackers will need to stay home to watch for this. If Harris has too much time to throw then it could be a long day for the Tigers. The weakness on the Miami offense is the offensive line. Bowers and Branch, as well as the rest of the defensive line need to take advantage of this and put pressure on Harris. Bowers and Branch have 3 sacks each. The defense has 10 sacks total this year and ranks 10th in the nation. Clemson will need to put the pressure on Jacory Harris to keep him off balance. At the same time the Clemson secondary will need to play well and get some picks.

Special Teams: Advantage: Even

Both teams have formidable special teams. Dawson Zimmerman is averaging 46.06 yds per punt (#10 in the nation) while Matt Bosher of Miami averages 45.6 yards per punt but he also handles the kicking duties. He already has a 51-yard field goal this season. Both teams are good in punt returns with Miami coming in at #10 and Clemson at #21. Travis Benjamin has returned only 4 punts this year but one of them was for a 79 yard TD. Marcus Gilchrist is averaging 18.33 yards per return.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

The game is not only at Clemson but it is also Homecoming!! The crowd can win this game for the Tigers but only if they stop “Quacking like a bunch of ducks” as Dabo has eluded to. I borrowed this from a story that David Hood wrote about Dabo talking to the media about fans complaining about the noon start time? Get out there early, pour your Bloody Mary and get behind the Tigers!!

Prediction: The experts say Miami by 3. I just hope they are wrong. I also hope I’m wrong. The Tigers have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one but I think they still might have Auburn in the back of their heads. Below is my unemotional by the numbers prediction, but in my heart I know they can win.

Miami 28 Clemson 17

Go Tigers!! Prove me wrong!

Rev O “my glass is still half full so don’t give up the faith!!